Coastal North Carolina is characterized by complex ownership
patterns; in addition to residential property, family farms, and
businesses, large parcels are held by the U.S. Department of
Defense, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, State of North Carolina,
timber and agriculture corporations, non-governmental organizations,
and real estate developers. The counties most vulnerable to
SLR in the northeast portion of the State (excluding the barrier
island portion of Dare Country) are the State’s poorest counties and
among the poorest in the USA, according to the U.S. Census Bureau
and the North Carolina Department of Commerce economic wellbeing
index. The coastal economy is changing, and the fishing
industry, which once sustained local economies, has been overshadowed
by development and tourism. Currently, coastal tourism
accounts for approximately $2.6 billion yr1 (North Carolina
Department of Environment and Natural Resources 2005).
Estimates of the impact of SLR on coastal economies must
consider a suite of potential impacts, including increased exposure
to coastal erosion (Fig. 3b) and direct inundation on various sectors,
such as recreation, business, and private property [2]. For just four
coastal North Carolina counties, the negative impact of SLR on
property values has been estimated at up to $6.9 billion by 2080,
along with statewide recreation losses (beach visits) valued at $3.5
billion between 2005 and 2080, due to increased erosion (largely
due to storms) and narrowed and steepened beaches [2]. Negative
recreational fishing impacts were valued at $430 million between
2005 and 2080, due to loss of present fishing locations [2]. These
estimates did not consider the additional economic cost of maintaining
beach widths by adding sand and filling new inlets, up to
millions of dollars per year per beach segment.
The configuration of private property holdings makes adaptation
to SLR challenging because many vulnerable lowland habitats
cannot naturally migrate inland due to ownership patterns (Fig. 4).
Property rights issues will emerge after private property is
submerged and, as a result, become the property of the State (see
Ref. [56]). Potential mechanisms to address these challenges
include stakeholder dialogue, collaborative management, and
various land protection strategies, such as easements and life
estates. Easements could include ‘rolling easements,’ which
prohibit only shoreline stabilization structures and allow other
property uses and the occupation of buildings until sea level reaches
them, at which time they must be abandoned or removed [50].
Changes in the estuarine system driven by SLR and associated
direct effects on species populations are equally uncertain and will
be determined by large-scale processes, such as the fate of large
stores of disintegrating terrestrial peats that could strongly influence
estuarine biogeochemistry [18] or a collapse of a portion of the
barrier islands and the conversion of estuarine to pelagic conditions
[45]. These and other processes associated with climate change and
local human activities (discussed next) may result in non-linear
responses and novel conditions that are associated with high levels
of uncertainty.
Benjamin Poulter a,*, Rebecca L. Feldman b,c, Mark M. Brinson d,e, Benjamin P. Horton f,
Michael K. Orbach b, Samuel H. Pearsall g, Enrique Reyes d,e, Stanley R. Riggs d,e,
John C. Whitehead h
a Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Earth System Science, Telegrafenberg A62, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
b Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Beaufort, NC, USA
c Dean John A. Knauss Marine Policy Fellowship Program, NOAA Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, USA
d East Carolina University, Coastal Resources Management Program and the Department of Biology, Greenville, NC, USA
e East Carolina University, Coastal Resources Management Program and the Department of Geological Sciences, Greenville, NC, USA
f University of Pennsylvania, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Philadelphia, PA, USA
g The Nature Conservancy, North Carolina Chapter, Durham, NC, USA
h Appalachian State University, Department of Economics, Boone, NC, USA
Nancy
outerbanksharvest
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