ublished Sat, Jan 16, 2010 12:15 PM
Modified Sat, Jan 16, 2010 01:16 PM

Panel: Rising ocean levels threaten NC Outer Banks

RALEIGH, N.C. Sea levels along the North Carolina shore could rise from just over a foot to as much as 4 1/2 feet this century and possibly reshape the state’s coastline, according to a panel of scientists and engineers gathered by the state.

The panel thinks sea level rises will be small now, but could accelerate by 2100 to the point where the Outer Banks are overwhelmed and the Pamlico Sound basically turns into open ocean.

“It’s hard to think 80 to 100 years down the road, which is why it’s important to incorporate it into long-term planning and let science lead on this,” David Knight, an assistant secretary of the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, told The Charlotte Observer.

Sea levels will rise much faster in the soft sediment off the northern coast – about twice the rate levels will rise on the sand-covered rock on the southern coast near Wilmington.

The panel came up with three different estimates on how much the ocean will rise. The lowest projection of 1.3 feet assumes seas levels keep increasing at the same pace; a second projection of 3.3 feet basically lines up with an expected 3-foot rise in sea levels globally; and the highest projected increase of 4.6 feet reflects a growing trend of climate scientists who think ocean levels will rise faster than expected.

An increase in storms and stronger ocean waves will magnify the sea level increase in coastal towns, scientists said.

The panel suggested adding more sea level monitoring stations along the North Carolina coast and revising estimates of sea level rises every five years.

Burgett of USGS national Wetlands

North Carolina is ahead of most states in preparing for the ocean’s rise because it collects accurate data and has coastal scientists who are aggressively looking at the issue, said Virginia Burkett, the U.S. Geological Survey’s chief climate scientist.

Sea levels have been stable for more than 7,000 years but have risen at an accelerated rate in recent years, nearly doubling the 20th century rate between 1993 and 2003, Burkett said.